Analysis of thermal reliability of the RA reactor

In the first part the basic elements of mathematical method used in further analysis are presented. The method offers the possibility for performance of an analysis of one or more quantities that are essential for thermic reliability on the basis of statistical data from reactor exploitation. This method could be used to determine the character of their behaviour, to analyze fluctuation around the mean and nominal values, to determine the probabilities of attaining and exceeding certain limits etc., these values being then compared with calculation and critical. In the second part of the paper the method is applied to the analysis of the fuel can temperature of reactor RA in Vinca. Two-year exploitation period has been observed at nominal power of 6,5 MW. The actual state of temperature compared with the values from the project indicates certain deviations which expressed over the probability give a factor of reliability in work of some fuel channels and zones. In the conclusion it is pointed out the possibility of application of the described methods in the safety analyses of reactor systems, and the purpose of application is realization of a more real solution, also obtaining of a more real picture regarding thermal reliability state (author)