Probabilistic fracture mechanics analysis of boiling water reactor vessel for cool-down and low temperature over-pressurization transients

The failure probabilities of the reactor pressure vessel (RPV) for low temperature over-pressurization (LTOP) and cool-down transients are calculated in this study. For the cool-down transient, a pressure-temperature limit curve is generated in accordance with Section XI, Appendix G of the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) code, from which safety margin factors are deliberately removed for the probabilistic fracture mechanics analysis. Then, sensitivity analyses are conducted to understand the effects of some input parameters. For the LTOP transient, the failure of the RPV mostly occurs during the period of the abrupt pressure rise. For the cool-down transient, the decrease of the fracture toughness with temperature and time plays a main role in RPV failure at the end of the cool-down process. As expected, the failure probability increases with increasing fluence, Cu and Ni contents, and initial reference temperature-nil ductility transition (RTNDT). The effect of warm prestressing on the vessel failure probability for LTOP is not significant because most of the failures happen before the stress intensity factor reaches the peak value while its effect reduces the failure probability by more than one order of magnitude for the cool-down transient