Regulatory taxation of fossil fuels. Theory and policy

Research on energy taxation is often based on purely theoretical deductions. This paper stays closer to the real world, using empirical data and interpreting results in a political-economic setting of risk and uncertainty. Economic growth in developing countries will boost energy demand, increasing the risk of shortages of oil and natural gas half-way through the next century, and of coal towards the year 2100. Furthermore, there is mounting evidence that emissions of CO2 trigger harmful climate changes. A timely introduction of regulatory taxes will reduce demand for fossil fuels and accelerate the introduction of sustainable technology. The empirical results presented show, moreover, that such taxes may claim a substantial part of the rent on energy extraction for the energy-importing countries. It is argued that optimal control and the avoidance of displacement effects require a tax affecting marginal use, with exceptions to safeguard competitive positions. Exceptions may be scaled down as the jurisdiction is enlarged