Forecasting Rainfall with Time Series Model

The aim of the study was to forecast Rainfall with Time Series Model. Monthly rainfall of 48 data got from Badan Meteorologi dan Geofisika (BMG) Bandung from January 2011 to December 2013 are processed by a computer program to look at the pattern in minitab model ARIMA. This modelling stage begins from the stationarity test data, identify models, parameter estimation, and model verification, to forecasting. Precipitation data is data that is not stationary so that distinguish first. The data obtained from the model results this first distinction is ARIMA (1, 1, 1) with the MAD 82.712 test of the significance of the parameters of the model. (paper)