Market perspectives of H2 vehicles. Analysis of current status and requirements

This report serves as discussion document for the workshop 'Technologies for fuel cells and hydrogen in road transport' in Paris, France, March 2009. The workshop is part of the Efonet (Energy Foresight Network, www.efonet.org ) program initiated by the European Commission. As a starting point, the status quo of fuel cell technology is analyzed from an innovation perspective, compared with the current vehicle deployment in demonstration projects worldwide. Then, cost reductions of fuel cell and drive train components that can be achieved as function over time are modelled in a learning curve approach. This provides a forecast on the expected vehicle cost by cumulative production, enabling discussion on the connection between necessary vehicle deployment and current demonstration projects, also in respect to project finance. Within the EU HyWays project, four scenarios have been developed to model the penetration rates for hydrogen vehicles in transport. All scenarios are determined by two influencing factors, policy support and level of technological learning. Depending on the scenario, it is assumed that mass production of vehicles starts either by 2013 (2016) with a group of 5 (4) first movers that achieve up to 90% plant utilization in different time frames. Given the bandwidth of scenario results, it is possible to redefine cost targets and provide recommendations for the necessary policy support. The report also provides an assessment of current hydrogen vehicle RD and D activities by different OEMs and gives an indication on the expected market entry strategies and time frame. To conclude, cost of conventional and hydrogen vehicles are compared on a euro/km level, testing several policy measures for their suitability to lower the expected high vehicle cost for the end-consumer.