World energy horizons 2000-2020

The global energy supply and demand projections for 2000 and 2020 presented in this report, are based on a study undertaken by the World Energy Council and released in 1989. The work was performed by some 30 experts from all over the world, formulating regional projections. This decentralized approach made it possible, in the context of two ''moderate'' and ''limited'' economic growth scenarios, to draw some reference energy solutions from a 1960-1985 base to years 2000 and 2020. Energy supply, demand and exchange projections are presented for five regions and the world as a whole, each projection being split into seven primary energy sources. Combined with economic, demographic and price assumptions, the projections lead to indicators such as: energy intensities, income elasticities, regional autonomies, stresses on energy resources, energy bills, CO2 emissions, etc. The projections show an increase in the world energy demand by 50 to 75% between 1985 and 2020 with a growing share for developing countries although the average levels of per capita consumption in the South remain critically low. World demand would still mostly be supplied by coal and hydrocarbons with a limited share for nuclear and new renewables and a renewed dominance from Middle East oil exports. Uncertainties mainly focus on financing capabilities, environmental tensions and geopolitical imbalances such as the critical situation of the populated and poorly fuelled regions of Africa and South Asia. (author). 2 figs, 4 tabs