Cost probability analysis of reprocessing spent nuclear fuel in the US

The methods by which nuclear power's radioactive signature could be reduced typically require the reprocessing of spent nuclear fuel. However, economic assessments of the costs that are associated with doing this are subject to a high degree of uncertainty. We present a probabilistic analysis of the costs to build, operate and decommission the facilities that would be required to reprocess all US spent nuclear fuel generated over a one hundred year time frame, starting from a 2010 power production rate. The analysis suggests a total life-cycle cost of 2.11 ± 0.26 mills/kWh, with a 90% and 99% confidence that the overall cost would remain below 2.45 and 2.75 mills/kWh respectively. The most significant effects on cost come from the efficiency of the reactor fleet and the growth rate of nuclear power. The analysis shows that discounting results in life-cycle costs decreasing as recycling is delayed. However the costs to store spent fuel closely counter the effect of discounting when an intergenerational discount rate is used.