Sea ice in the Canadian Arctic in the 21. century

Climate warming will occur first and most intensely in Arctic regions, according to the numerical simulations of future climate performed with different Global Climate Models (GCMs). It includes the simulations performed by the Meteorological Service of Canada. The observations gathered in the Arctic indicate that the present warming has no precedent over the past four hundred years. Since the 1970s, data acquired mainly by satellite indicates that the extent of Arctic sea ice decreased at a rate of approximately three per cent per decade. Over the period 1969-2000, a similar rate of decrease has been observed within Canadian Arctic waters. Over the past forty years, estimates of the thickness of ice in the Arctic, based on submarine measurements, show a 40 per cent decrease. By 2050, if all the conditions remain as they are, the Arctic Ocean could be ice free. The most widely held scientific opinion seems to be that in the future there will be less ice in the Arctic than what was observed in the past, an opinion that is still being debated by scientists. The development of local natural resources and trans-shipment between Europe and Asia could increase dramatically in a future with less ice. Marine transportation in the Canadian Arctic would be expanded. Climatological analysis results of Canadian ice information is presented by the authors, and they have chosen to discuss various probable scenarios related to ice conditions during this century. 13 refs., 8 figs