The role of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) in the European gas market

The purpose of this paper is to discuss the role that Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) might play in the future EU gas market. LNG imports are not likely to have a place in the Netherlands soon, but they could make an important contribution to the volume and diversity of Europe's gas supplies. An important characteristic of LNG is its inherently high costs, throughout the whole chain, from the wellhead to the market. These costs are considerably higher than the costs of bringing oil to the market. Cost considerations, in combination with the rigidity of the gas market, have led to the use of long-term contracts as a basis for the business, as is the case for the long haul pipeline gas business. Costs have come down considerably and further cost reductions are 'in the pipeline'. While this does not alter the fundamentals of the business it has nonetheless helped to extend the reach of LNG. LNG from the Middle East to Europe has now become economically feasible. The high gas prices of recent years have further fuelled the expansion of the LNG business. Supported by a rapidly growing global economy at the turn of this century, many prospects are under development. The positive economic outlook has seen more speculative positioning in every segment of the LNG chain, while more vertical integration has been industry's response to market liberalisation. The more recent slowdown of the market economies has created a surplus of LNG, which is finding its way onto the markets through short-term and spot transactions. The short-term business will grow over the next few years as more LNG and shipping capacity comes on-stream. However, given underlying high costs and limited flexibility, it should be expected that new projects, currently under consideration, will only be developed on the basis of long-term contracts, thus returning to a balance between supply and demand. For these same reasons, LNG will not likely develop the same the liquidity as that of the oil market. The global LNG market is vibrant, offers considerable prospects for growth, and could contribute to meeting the EU's growing demand for gas. However, possibly even more so than for pipeline supplies, prospective LNG supply sources have alternative markets. Competition for supplies will drive part of the market. The US gas market, in particular, with its growing need for gas imports, could become a major magnet for LNG, in direct competition with the European market. Failure to recognise this in European energy and regulatory policies could limit Europe's ability to secure this gas for its own markets.