China's regional CO₂ emissions reduction potential: A study of Chongqing city

Highlights: • A three-phase model of regional CO₂ emission reduction potential was built. • Chongqing, the only municipality in the Midwest of China, was taken as example. • The driving factors of CO₂ emission in Chongqing were analysed. • The future CO₂ emission reduction potential in Chongqing was predicted. • The difficulties of achieving CO₂ emission reduction targets in 2020 were assessed. - Abstract: Since China has put forward a series of obligatory Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emission reduction targets, provincial governments have issued provincial-level "Twelfth Five-Year" carbon intensity (CO₂ emissions/GDP) reduction targets. There are 653 cities distributed throughout the eastern, middle and western parts of China, and each region has different quotas and paths to reduce GHG emissions, while the western part has greater challenges than the others. This paper predicts CO₂ emission reduction potential of Chongqing, assesses the difficulty of achieving its CO₂ emission reduction targets, and analyses its low-carbon transition path. The results show that the carbon intensity of Chongqing in 2020 will range from 1.58 to 1.75 ton CO₂/10⁴ RMB, and there exist some scenarios with strong potential to meet carbon intensity reduction targets for 2020. Improved technology, energy efficiency, the optimization of energy input mix, and the adjustment of industrial structure are suggested to be major strategies to reach Chongqing's carbon intensity targets.