Evaluating direct energy savings and market transformation effects: A decade of technical design assistance in the northwestern USA

This paper documents the direct energy savings and energy efficiency market transformation impacts of a multi-state design assistance program in the northwestern US. The paper addresses four specific aims. (1) It provides a conservative and justified estimate of the direct energy savings associated with design assistance activities of a market transformation program from 2001 to 2010. (2) It provides a rigorous methodology to evaluate direct energy savings associated with design assistance market transformation programs. (3) It provides a low-cost replicable method to predict energy savings in new buildings by evaluating the integrated design process. (4) It provides quantitative indicators useful for estimating indirect energy savings from market transformation. Applying the recommended analysis method and assuming a 12-year measure life, the direct energy savings of the population (626 buildings; 51,262,000 ft2) is estimated as 45.3 aMW (average megawatts) (electric), and 265,738.089 therms (non-electric). If the entire program budget were divided into the electric savings only, the Lab Network cost per kWh saved ranged from $0.0016 to $0.003 using the recommended method and $0.0092/kWh using the most conservative method. These figures do not isolate contextual influences or represent total resource cost. Statistically significant correlations (r2=0.1−0.3) between integrated design scores and energy savings are reported. - Highlights: ► Estimated direct energy savings of a market transformation program are presented. ► A methodology to evaluate energy savings from multiple baselines is documented. ► Level of integrated design can be used to estimate energy savings in new buildings. ► Quantitative evaluation indicators of efficiency market transformation are provided. ► Electric energy saved from design assistance costs between $0.0016 and $0.0092/kWh.