China [Financial Modelling and Risk Analysis in Participating Member States (Case Studies)]

In 2017, electricity demand in China reached 6300 TWh, a five-fold increase compared to the levels in 2000. In 2017, the majority of electricity generation is provided by coal (about 70% of the total), while the contribution of other fossil fuels (gas and oil) is negligible. Among low carbon sources hydroelectric power has a generation share of 17%, nuclear of 3.5%, while wind, solar and biofuels had a combined share of 7%. The main drivers of China energy policy are to meet the growing demand and to reduce power outages, whilst reducing carbon emissions and air pollution levels due to the use of fossil fuels. In November 2014 the Premier announced that China intended about 20% of its primary energy consumption to be from non-fossil fuels by 2030, at which time it expected its peak of CO₂ emissions to occur. In the 13^th Five Year Plan for power production announced by the National Energy Administration in November 2016, coal capacity will be limited to 1100 GW by 2020, by cancelling and postponing about 150 GW of projects. Gas is projected at 110 GW in 2020, hydro at 340 GW, wind at 210 GW, and solar at 110 GW (of which 60 GW of distributed PV). The objective of having a nuclear capacity of 58 GW was reiterated for 2020. Non-fossil sources would then produce 15% of electricity.