Investigation of vessel traffic passing through the Aleutian Islands with discussion of risk factors that could lead to oil pollution

The oil spill risks posed by marine vessels travelling the North Pacific route from North America to Asia were discussed with reference to the grounding and break-up of the bulk grain ship M/V Selendang Ayu at Unalaska Island in Alaska's Aleutian Islands. The challenge of gathering and categorizing vessel traffic data in the Aleutians was also discussed along with a review of methods for developing an accurate traffic study for this large, remote maritime region. The travelling route passes through, or lies in close proximity to large and valuable commercial fishing grounds as well as the Alaska Maritime National Wildlife Refuge. As most vessels remain in international waters, they do not report their presence to state and national authorities and are exempt from contingency planning requirements. This paper listed the factors affecting risk of damage from oil spills from marine vessels. These include the volume of oil carried; types of oil; proximity to environmentally sensitive areas; fate of spill; location of spill response equipment; number of vessels travelling through the area; time that vessels are in the area; type and age of vessels; environmental factors affecting sailing conditions; factors limiting rescue; and interaction with regulatory agencies. When considered as a whole, these factors can help in deciding the degree and type of contingency planning. In order to estimate traffic through the North Pacific route, the authors compared, combined and extrapolated information from similar datasets. The task involved 3 steps: (1) estimating the number of trans-Pacific voyages through the Aleutians, (2) estimating vessel type, and (3) estimating fuel oil carried by vessel type. It was determined that more than 2,700 ship voyages pass through the Aleutians every year, of which 50 carry a total of 800 million gallons of oil as cargo. It was noted that serious ship accidents occur so infrequently in remote areas that it was impossible to establish an accurate baseline from which to establish probability of occurrence. For that reason, it was suggested that this study should be compared with other regions. The general understanding of relative risk can be improved by comparing risk consequence and probability variables. 4 tabs., 3 figs