Analyzing production potential of selected food and legume crops for food security in Punjab, Pakistan

The present study was designed to assess growth rate in area, yield and production of selected major food commodities and to project these parameters on the basis of estimated growth co-efficient. Time-series data for area, yield and production were collected for wheat, sugarcane, rice, mung and gram since 1980-81. The semi-log trend function was employed to find out the growth rate of selected commodities. The findings of the study showed the positive growth rates of area, production and yield of all selected food grain and legume crops. The estimated co-efficient for all growth models (area, production and yield) of selected commodities were statistically highly significant at 1 percentage level except yield of gram which was significant at 10 percentage level. The estimated annual growth rate of area for wheat, rice and sugarcane was 0.9 percentage, 2.1 percentage and 0.8 percentage, respectively with the production growth of 3.0 percentage, 3.8 percentage and 2.2 percentage, respectively and yield growth of 2.1 percentage, 1.6 percentage and 1.5 percentage, respectively. The results highlighted that the major contribution for expansion in production for rice and sugarcane was area while it was yield for wheat. In this scenario the wheat production can be enhanced by increasing its area than that of rice and sugarcane. The annual growth rate for gram and mung area was estimated about 1.0 v and 4.9 percentage, respectively, with the production growth rate of 2.3 percentage and 6.4 percentage while yield growth rate of 2.9 percentage and 1.4 percentage, respectively. Keeping in view the higher growth of gram yield the increase in its area may enhance its production more than that of mung. The proportionate higher increase in the area of wheat and gram may enhance the welfare of producers in particular and provide food security to masses in general. (author)