Empirically-based modeling and mapping to consider the co-occurrence of ecological receptors and stressors

Highlights: • Ecological risk managers assess potential for stressors and receptors to co-occur. • A data-driven approach to modeling and mapping co-occurrences is presented. • Model provides inference regarding ecotoxicological and environmental drivers. • Mapped, probabilistic predictions afford a spatial construct for assessments. • A study on stream fishes clarifies key model structures and practical utility. Part of the ecological risk assessment process involves examining the potential for environmental stressors and ecological receptors to co-occur across a landscape. In this study, we introduce a Bayesian joint modeling framework for use in evaluating and mapping the co-occurrence of stressors and receptors using empirical data, open-source statistical software, and Geographic Information Systems tools and data. To illustrate the approach, we apply the framework to bioassessment data on stream fishes and nutrients collected from a watershed in southwestern Ohio. The results highlighted the joint model's ability to parse and exploit statistical dependencies in order to provide empirical insight into the potential environmental and ecotoxicological interactions influencing co-occurrence. We also demonstrate how probabilistic predictions can be generated and mapped to visualize spatial patterns in co-occurrences. For practitioners, we believe that this data-driven approach to modeling and mapping co-occurrence can lead to more quantitatively transparent and robust assessments of ecological risk.