Interfacing real-time radiological field data with predictive long range transport models

The extent in space and time of the Chernobyl accident and the uncertainty of its source term has raised several challenges to the modelers of atmospheric transport. An interesting working hypothesis that emerged is that models predicting contamination levels over time scales larger than one or two days, can only be successful if they are used in conjunction with the results from real-time radiological field measurements. The paper discusses how such data might be used together with long range transport models to optimize the predictions of where a radioactive cloud is expected to go. The ideas are illustrated using a simple trajectory model and radiological data generated after the Chernobyl accident