The Yucca Mountain probabilistic volcanic hazard analysis project

The Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Analysis (PVHA) project, sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), was conducted to assess the probability of a future volcanic event disrupting the potential repository at Yucca Mountain. The PVHA project is one of the first major expert judgment studies that DOE has authorized for technical assessments related to the Yucca Mountain project. The judgments of members of a ten-person expert panel were elicited to ensure that a wide range of approaches were considered for the hazard analysis. The results of the individual elicitations were then combined to develop an integrated assessment of the volcanic hazard that reflects the diversity of alternative scientific interpretations. This assessment, which focused on the volcanic hazard at the site, expressed as the probability of disruption of the potential repository, will provide input to an assessment of volcanic risk, which expresses the probability of radionuclide release due to volcanic disruption