Heat Roadmap Europe: Towards EU-Wide, local heat supply strategies

Highlights: • A comprehensive spatial energy planning model for the European heat sector. • Cost-supply relationships of district heat and investment costs on local levels. • Temporal and spatial allocation of excess heat to potential district heating systems. • Heat supply strategies for 50,000 heat supply districts across Europe. -- Abstract: The present paper describes a quantitative method for preparing local heat supply strategies. Detailed spatial data on heat demand and supply are generated using combined top-down and bottom-up modelling for 14 member states of the European Union, which constitute 91% of its heat demand in buildings. Spatial analysis is used for zoning of heat supply into individual and collective heating. Continuous cost curves are used to model economically feasible district heating shares within prospective supply districts. Excess heat is appraised and allocated to prospective district heating systems by means of a two-stage network allocation process. Access to renewable energy sources such as geothermal, large-scale solar thermal, as well as sustainable biomass, is analysed. The result is a comprehensive and detailed set of heat supply strategies in a spatially discrete manner. The findings indicate that in the 14 European Union member states, up to 71% of building heat demand in urban areas can be met with district heating. Of this, up to 78% can be covered with excess heat, while the remainder can be covered with low enthalpy renewable energy sources. The conclusion shows the possibility of a largely de-carbonised heat sector as part of a smart energy system for Europe.