The uncertainty in dispersion estimates obtained from the Working Group models

This report is the seventh in a series giving practical guidance to estimate the dispersion of radionuclides released to the atmosphere. It represents the conclusions of a Working Group established to review recent developments in atmospheric dispersion modelling and to propose models for use within the UK. This report examines the uncertainty inherent in predictions of atmospheric dispersion made with models recommended by the Group. It identifies the number of sources of uncertainty, such as the random nature of atmospheric dispersion, the idealisations inherent in modelling and the choice of values for the many parameters involved. The report puts these uncertainties in context and comments on the reliability of models for use in practical situations. (author)