The Nuclear program of Navy: an approach from the budget

After the initiatives arising in the 50s, to conduct scientific research in Brazil, in the nuclear sector, the Brazilian government decided to invest resources in the early '70s, to provide the country with full training in the nuclear fuel cycle, producing reactors research and power and reprocessing of spent nuclear fuel in the reactors. This course of action was intended to guarantee the necessary to make stronger our energy matrix, with the use of natural resources (uranium and thorium mines whose reserves are among the largest in the world) for the production of electricity, within view particularly development programs in effect at the time. Meanwhile, the Navy of Brazil, identifying the need to operate nuclear-powered submarines in the security and defense of the South Atlantic, institutionalized in 1979, a nuclear program which aimed to the complete domination independently of the nuclear cycle. Since then, what is realized is that the trajectory of the development of this program, in addition to external difficulties imposed by countries holders of this technology, budget internal issue became relevant. The irregularity of financial transfers caused the delay and the lack of guarantees of future budgets led to the unpredictability of strategic planning, leading the program to the 'vegetative' state for nearly a decade. However, from the 2000s, the possibility of economic exploitation by the expansion of the Brazilian Continental Shelf and the new discoveries of oil in the pre-salt tier shifted the vision balance then attributed to the use of nuclear technology as an energy source only, or intended for research and development in areas such as health and agriculture, reinforced the argument that Brazil must have this technology to 'discourage the concentration of hostile forces within the limits of Brazilian territorial waters'. In this context, the paper describes and analyzes how the Navy Nuclear Program (PNM) amounted to the government agenda, as were the decision-making processes that defined the allocation of its budget resources and what the prospects facing the current challenges. The analyzes are referenced by three theoretical models adapted to the case: (1) incremental, (2) Multiple Streams and (3) the Punctuated Equilibrium. The theory (1) incremental, adapted from Davis, Dempster and Wildavsky (1966), better known in Brazil (OLLAIK et al, 2011), assumes that every budget is prepared based on the previous; while explaining the aggregate budget process, is insufficient when the analysis lies more detailed, as the program levels. The (2) Multiple Streams model, presented by Kingdon (2003), aims to show how an idea turns into public policy, being adequate to explain how programs amount to the government agenda. Finally, (3) the Punctuated Equilibrium model, developed from studies True, Jones and Baumgartner (2006), aims to analyze the dynamics of political processes, which occasionally produce major changes in the government agenda, proves appropriate to answer the why the budget oscillations, present throughout the history of the PNM. Thus, models of Multiple Streams and Punctuated Equilibrium complement the incremental theory that guides the empirical case study. The research covered since the previous events, leading up to the institutionalization of the program in 1979 up to subsequent events associated with it occurring after 2012. At the end, in conclusion, institutional suggestions are presented in order to mitigate budgetary problems and improving the management of the program, taking advantage of new ideas and specific regulations that are appearing in the field of public administration. (author)