Assessment of present and future risk to Italian forests and human health: Modelling and mapping

A review of ozone pollution in Italy shows levels largely above the thresholds established by EU regulation for vegetation and human health protection. The Italian air quality monitoring network appears quantitatively inadequate to cover all the territorial surface, because of scarcity and unequal distribution of monitoring sites. By applying the integrated assessment model RAINS-Italy to the year 2000, the whole of Italy exceeds the AOT40 critical level for forest, while Northern and central areas show strong potential of O3 impact on human health with ∼11% of territory >10 O3-induced premature deaths. Two scenarios for the year 2020, the Current Legislation and the Maximum Technical Feasible Reduction, show a reduction of AOT40Forest by 29% and 44%, SOMO35 by 31% and 47%, and O3-induced premature deaths by 32% and 48%, compared to 2000. RAINS-Italy can be used to improve the map quality and cover areas not reached by the national monitoring network. - AOT40 and SOMO35 are and will be high enough to affect forest and human health all over Italy.