Ten-year outlook : an assessment of the adequacy of generation and transmission facilities in New Brunswick 2005-2014

The New Brunswick System Operator (NBSO) is an independent not-for-profit statutory corporation which was created in October 2004 at a time when the province's electric utility industry was being restructured. The NBSO is responsible for the security and reliability of the integrated electricity system as well as facilitating the development and operation of the New Brunswick electricity market. The responsibilities include the operation of the NBSO controlled grid and administration of the Open Access Transmission Tariff and the market rules. This 10-year outlook informs existing and potential market participants of the current and future outlook for the market and for the adequacy of the electricity system. It presents generation and transmission plans for new projects and potential plans for transmission upgrades that may be needed. It allows market participants to assess potential market opportunities for themselves and their customers. It was noted that the electricity system in the province faces significant challenges and opportunities in the next decade. The challenge lies in new generation resources to support load growth, and particularly the uncertainty regarding the refurbishment of New Brunswick's nuclear generating unit at Point Lepreau. Opportunities include the evolution of the electricity market which allows for participants to independently buy and sell power through bilateral contracts. Other opportunities include open access to the transmission system which allows developers to build power projects. In addition, the planned second 345 kV intertie project with New England increases transfer capability and presents more export opportunities for power producers in New Brunswick. The 10-year load forecast is predicted to increase from 15,690 GWh in 2005-2006 to 17,638 GWh in 2014-2015, an increase of 1.3 per cent. The outlook on generation resources indicates that the province requires an additional 356 MW by 2008-2009 to meet long term NBSO capacity based reserve criterion. Currently, the only committed new generation addition is the 20 MW of wind capacity in 2005-2006 at Grand Manan. Other major projects that will maintain supply and reliability in the planned period were also listed. 2 refs., 8 tabs., 6 figs., 1 appendix