An analysis strategy for safeguards use of optical satellite imagery

This paper outlines conceptual framework for safeguards remote sensing, and suggests a strategy for overcoming the challenges to full exploitation of all types of optical satellite imagery. Since the introduction of commercial open-source high-resolution satellite imagery in 1999, it has become an important tool for verification of declarations, baseline mapping, detection and monitoring of changes and investigation of undeclared activities. Its use is still relatively restricted, but there is a growing demand for wider satellite reconnaissance support, and the Satellite Image Analysis Unit (SIAU) has recently been expanded in response. For a number of reasons, IAEA safeguards use of satellite imagery is largely based on visual interpretation by experienced image analysts of high-resolution monochromatic imagery to monitor and characterize buildings and structures on safeguards sites. The very wide range of remote sensing capabilities could be more fully exploited. There is still a need to demonstrate these capabilities and demonstrate the relevance of other techniques - not as a replacement but as important supplemental data providing answers to different questions than can be answered by manual photo-interpretation. A framework is outlined intended to assist managers and inspectors gain an appreciation of the different types of remote sensing systems relevant to safeguards, and see their relevance to the questions at hand. Wider use of remote sensing technology is growing slowly. Experience shows that potential users do not become interested in any new technology unless they understand the potential benefit, and they can see that it can be integrated with their own knowledge, practice and priorities. Until recently, very few inspectors had any experience with what remote sensing can do. During the past several years, under the sponsorship of the Canadian and Swedish and British Support Programs, the IAEA has held annual satellite awareness courses for inspectors and other staff. There is real enthusiasm on the part of the course participants, and a growing appetite for satellite imagery support service to assist them with routine tasks such as inspection preparation. The real challenge in building awareness is being resolved by training. Issues remaining include complexity and cost, and developing new analysis methodologies. This is a call to the wider community of Member State Support Programs to develop standardized and automatic procedures that can be rapidly applied by SIAU to increase their effectiveness and efficiency. We are entering a new era in which we will have access to a rapidly-growing family of remote sensing satellite sensors of far greater capability than currently available. Over the next decade, these new sensors will together measure in almost all regions of the electromagnetic spectrum that are transmitted through the atmosphere. Costs will decrease, and remote sensing data and information products will be much more widely available. However, even with the recent expansion of the SIAU, it is likely that the IAEA does not have enough capacity to satisfy the current demand for image based information products, let alone begin to exploit these new capabilities. In a world with high resolution imagery of many nuclear sites openly available on the internet it makes sense to consider a more open exploitation of some forms of imagery. We suggest that in order to obtain leverage on available funding and expertise, the IAEA may wish to consider a strategy which includes outsourcing some of the non-classified analysis work to Member State Support Programs. In addition, in-house support could be made available to inspectors as 'over-the-counter' service of standardized products