Anticipated climate change impacts on flood characteristics : Moisie River application

The issue of global warming was discussed with particular reference to the changes that may occur in the hydrological regime within the coming decades in response to predicted changes in climate. Flood events for the 2050 time horizon were investigated along with the consequences on water management and dam safety. Dams operated by Hydro-Quebec are used for flood control, water supply, recreational activities and hydroelectricity. As such, the electric utility relies on methods to evaluate the adaptability of current management plans to climate change. This paper presented the results of a study conducted at the Moisie River watershed, located in northern Quebec. The HSAMI hydrologic model was used to evaluate and compare the occurrences where stream flows and water levels exceed critical values in order to assess the effectiveness of management plans in both current and climate change scenarios. The study considered two different approaches on existing and future anticipated meteorological scenarios based on different criteria. The purpose was to optimize future hydroelectric generation, reduce floods and improve the safety of hydraulic structures. Preliminary results suggest a possible increase in flood risk and fewer low water level occurrences. 7 refs., 2 tabs., 6 figs