Expert elicitation and the problem of detecting undeclared activities

Measures applicable to the detection of undeclared activities are not well established, and their effectiveness is uncertain. To detect clandestine paths, the IAEA is still developing processes and procedures. As the Agency gains experience with new measures and with integrated safeguards, dealing with such problems may become more experience-based and perhaps more closely parallel the process with current safeguards where detection probabilities for the measures to be utilized on declared paths are well characterized. Whether or not this point will be reached for undeclared and mixed paths, the only tool that appears suitable at present for the purpose of generating a reasonable detection probability that can over time be tested against reality and, if necessary, adjusted is formal expert judgment, or expert elicitation. Formal expert elicitation is a structured process that makes use of people knowledgeable in certain areas to make assessments. To provide a 'proof of principle' of this methodology for presentation to the Agency, experts in nuclear technology, nonproliferation, safeguards and open source information, as well as in formal expert elicitation processes, engaged in three illustrative expert elicitations on assessing information analysis as a means to detect undeclared activities. These elicitations were successful. This paper will discuss the process of and issues raised by the elicitations.