Canadian crude oil production and supply forecast 2006-2020

In order to enable members to plan for pipeline capacity requirements for transporting Canadian crude oil to markets, the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP) 2006-2020 crude oil production and supply forecast provides a long-range outlook of Canadian crude oil production. It provides a forecast of supply and demand for both western and eastern Canada. Because offshore eastern oil production does not rely on pipeline access to reach markets, the analysis primarily focuses on western Canadian production and supply. Over the next fifteen years, Alberta's oil sands provides the main source of growth in the western Canadian production forecast. A survey of CAPP members encompassing all oil sands projects was conducted. Survey responses reflect both planned and envisioned projects over a fifteen year period, although some of the envisioned projects have been risk adjusted by modifying the potential completion schedules for projects which are deemed more uncertain. Detailed tables are provided on forecast data. Three sets of tables are included to show production, two supply scenarios and a high level assessment of the need for incremental pipeline capacity. The report also discusses delays and risk factors that could slow the pace of oil sands development and the corresponding increase in production being forecast in the base case. 16 tabs