Energy outlook: has the 1997 vision of 2020 been confirmed?

In 1997, France's General Planning Commission carried out a foresight exercise on the country's energy consumption and CO₂ emissions for 2010 and 2020. Comparing the projections made more than 20 years ago with the actual trajectories observed in practice is a valuable exercise. We can see that the visions put forward by experts were confirmed or disproved to varying degrees depending on the sector in question. In addition, the comparison helps us to understand the conditions under which envisaged public policies can be successfully realised. The principal lesson learned for the current foresight exercises aimed at achieving carbon neutrality by 2050 is that the range of possibilities is extremely open, and should not be locked into a too conservative vision