Effect of energy taxation on fuel choice and emissions

The aim of the project was to study how various tax models for power plant fuels affect the fuel consumption and emissions of particles, sulphur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxide (NOx) and carbon dioxide (CO2). First, the development of Finnish energy taxation is discussed, followed by a survey of the energy production structure for 1994. For this purpose, it was necessary to prepare a large boiler database, which covers about 95 % of the fuel consumption of Finnish energy production. The boiler database was used to calculate the emissions of particles, SO2, NOx and CO2 in 1994. The year 2010 selected under review is the year by which the Ministry of Trade and Industry has prepared their primary energy consumption estimates. Four different alternatives were studied as future tax models. In the first alternative taxation would be as it in years 1995-1996 and in the second alternative taxation would be as in January 1997. In the third alternative the Finnish application of EU taxes would be in force in full, i.e., the tax on heavy fuel oil would be 10 US dollars a barrel. In the fourth alternative there would be no taxes on fuels. The boiler database was used to find out how the consumption distribution of the fuels used in 2010 would change in the various tax models. The tax models affect most the position of fuel peat and natural gas in Finland. If the EU alternative, which is favourable for fuel peat and natural gas, comes true, the consumption of fuel peat will grow by two thirds and the consumption of natural gas will more than double from the present level. If the taxation is as 1 January 1997, the consumption of peat will remain the same as today and the consumption of natural gas will grow by about 50 %. However, if there are no taxes on fuels, the consumption of fuel peat will fall by almost a third and the consumption of natural gas will remain the same as expected at the existing and planned plants. The effect of the various tax models on emissions of particles, NOx and CO2 is small. As regards particle and NOx emissions, this is due to the fact that the emission regulations concerning new plants do not differ much from fuel to fuel. The tax alternative has some bearing only with regard to sulphur dioxide emissions. Hence, if the Finnish application of EU taxes is introduced, sulphur dioxide emissions will grow clearly least. (orig.) SIHTI 2 Research Programme. 37 refs