A comparison of least squares linear regression and measurement error modeling of warm/cold multipole correlation in SSC prototype dipole magnets

Linear estimation of cold magnetic field quality based on warm multipole measurements is being considered as a quality control method for SSC production magnet acceptance. To investigate prediction uncertainties associated with such an approach, axial-scan (Z-scan) magnetic measurements from SSC Prototype Collider Dipole Magnets (CDM's) have been studied. This paper presents a preliminary evaluation of the explanatory ability of warm measurement multipole variation on the prediction of cold magnet multipoles. Two linear estimation methods are presented: least-squares regression, which uses the assumption of fixed independent variable (xi) observations, and the measurement error model, which includes measurement error in the xi's. The influence of warm multipole measurement errors on predicted cold magnet multipole averages is considered. MSD QA is studying warm/cold correlation to answer several magnet quality control questions. How well do warm measurements predict cold (2kA) multipoles? Does sampling error significantly influence estimates of the linear coefficients (slope, intercept and residual standard error)? Is estimation error for the predicted cold magnet average small compared to typical variation along the Z-Axis? What fraction of the multipole RMS tolerance is accounted for by individual magnet prediction uncertainty?