Carpe Diem: opportunity in the future fuel cycle markets

Data compiled by the US Enrichment Corporation show a modest growth in gross nuclear generating capacity worldwide to 2007 followed by a gradual reduction to 2020. This relative stability in demand holds challenges for the suppliers of enriched uranium. The situation is examined particularly from the perspective of the market in the USA. When the generating capacity figures are broken down on a regional basis, the most surprising prediction is the stability of the North American market. The full commitment of a series of leading US utilities to nuclear power and their continuing drive to enhance the performance of their nuclear operations is a major factor in a situation where environmental arguments in the end are less significant than simple economics. Three challenges to enrichment supplier groups are considered. These are: the age of much of the equipment in use in the industry, the availability of enriched uranium deriving from nuclear disarmament, and the impact of government subsidies. Laser isotope separation holds promise, but major investment is still needed to bring it to full commercialisation. It will also represent a challenge to the utilities in the change it will make to the commercial structure of the fuel cycle value chain. (12 figures). (UK)