Exploration fuel : new computer modelling system allows exploration of Canada's potential energy future

Without significant development of Canada's unconventional gas supplies and a reduction in Canada's natural gas use, Canada will become a net importer of natural gas by 2023, a fact which will have a major impact on oil sands production. This article described a computer model designed to consider Canada's potential energy future in relation to both natural gas supply and demand without considering price. The modelling study showed that new technologies are needed to reduce the amounts of energy used to produce Canada's oil sands resources. Methods such as toe-to-heel air injection (THAI) will provide a more efficient alternative to steam assisted gravity drainage (SAGD). The Canadian energy systems simulator (CanESS) was designed to interconnect up to 800 variables, and incorporates data points from Statistics Canada. The model is comprised of quantitative data and a physical economy model. It was concluded that the model can be used to explore the implications of energy policy options. 2 fig