Peak energy consumption and CO₂ emissions in China

China is in the processes of rapid industrialization and urbanization. Based on the Kaya identity, this paper proposes an analytical framework for various energy scenarios that explicitly simulates China's economic development, with a prospective consideration on the impacts of urbanization and income distribution. With the framework, China's 2050 energy consumption and associated CO₂ reduction scenarios are constructed. Main findings are: (1) energy consumption will peak at 5200–5400 million tons coal equivalent (Mtce) in 2035–2040; (2) CO₂ emissions will peak at 9200–9400 million tons (Mt) in 2030–2035, whilst it can be potentially reduced by 200–300 Mt; (3) China's per capita energy consumption and per capita CO₂ emission are projected to peak at 4 tce and 6.8 t respectively in 2020–2030, soon after China steps into the high income group. - Highlights: • A framework for modeling China's energy and CO₂ emissions is proposed. • Scenarios are constructed based on various assumptions on the driving forces. • Energy consumption will peak in 2035–2040 at 5200–5400 Mtce. • CO₂ emissions will peak in 2030–2035 at about 9300 Mt and be cut by 300 Mt in a cleaner energy path. • Energy consumption and CO₂ emissions per capita will peak soon after China steps into the high income group