Estimation of the GHG mitigation impact of the German Federal Government's Climate Protection Program 2030. Sub-report of the project "GHG projection: further development of methods and implementation of the EU Effort Sharing Decision in the 2019 projection report ("Policy Scenarios IX")"

This report analyzes the greenhouse gas reduction impacts of the individual measures in the 2030 Climate Protection Program. The methodology corresponds to the 2019 projection report. This report comprises two scenarios: REF: Reference scenario for the Climate Protection Program 2030 with partly updated data and harmonized assumptions compared to the Projection Report 2019. KSPr (Jan 2020): Comprehensive assessment of the Climate Protection Program 2030 (as of January 29, 2020). In addition to the reduction of coal-fired power generation and the expansion of renewable energies, the greatest mitigation effect is generated by the new CO${}_2$ pricing introduced from 2021 in the heat and transport sectors. In summary, the measures adopted are not yet sufficient to achieve the German target of at least 55 percent reduction by 2030. According to the consortium's modeling, there is a gap of around 71 million metric tons of CO${}_2$ equivalents (CO${}_{2e}$) in 2030. What is needed now is a prompt readjustment of the adopted program of measures, as provided for in the Federal Climate Protection Act.