Looking back from the endpoint. Competition between renewables after the phase-out of nuclear and fossil energies

A German electricity supply system fuelled entirely by the sun and wind appears somewhat as a vision of extremes. However, it is certainly one scenario for which the course has been set. One implication of this statement is that we are currently in what is referred to as a path-dependent development and are moreover witnessing a parting of the ways. This is going almost unnoticed in Germany. The present article therefore presents a thought experiment in which this tendency is interpreted as resulting from a parallelogram of forces, a model which also offers a view on the special energy summit of 2 November 2012. The author has taken the approach of representing the system change on a comparative, static basis. In doing so he has adopted the widely used method of looking back from a postulated endpoint. This is combined with an analysis of dynamically interacting driver elements. The endpoint, i.e. the time when the system has reached a steady state after its transformation, has been assumed to lie in the year 2050.