Canadian gas resource

Canadian exports of gas to the United States are a critical component of EMF-9 (North American Gas Supplies). However, it has been noted that there are differences between US expectations for imports and Canadian forecasts of export supply capacity. Recent studies by the National Petroleum Council (NPC) and the US Department of Energy (DOE) indicate that 1.8 to 2.4 Tcf of imports may be required in the mid to late 1990's; A recent study by Canada's National Energy Board (NEB) indicates that the conventional resource base may not be able to provide continued gas exports to the US after the mid 1990's and that frontier sources would need to be developed to meet US expectations. The discrepancies between US expectations and Canadian estimates of capacity are of great concern to US policymakers because they call into question the availability of secure supplies of natural gas and suggest that the cost of imports (if available) will be high. By implication, if shortages are to be averted, massive investment may be required to bring these higher cost sources to market. Since the long-term supply picture will be determined by the underlying resource base, EMF-9 participants have been asked to provide estimates of critical components of the Canadian resource base. This paper provides a summary of ICF-Lewin's recent investigation of both the Conventional and Tight Gas resource in Canada's Western Sedimentary Basin, which includes both quantitative estimates and a brief sketch of the analysis methodology