Significance of certain rustler aquifer parameters for predicting long-term radiation doses from WIPP

This report considers some aspects of the radionuclide transport modeling presented in documents published by the US Department of Energy (DOE) regarding the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) nuclear waste repository proposed for development in Southeastern New Mexico. The radionuclide transport modeling is used to predict worst possible consequences of a WIPP repository breach event in which waste enters groundwater. The aim of this report is to determine whether plausible changes in the parameters used by DOE to describe the flow of groundwater near the WIPP site could result in: (a) significantly faster radionuclide movement in groundwater; and (b) significantly higher concentrations of radionuclides in Pecos River water and correspondingly higher radiation doses than predicted by DOE. The conclusion reached is that while plausible changes in hydrologic conditions and waste-rock interactions might result in a significant reduction in the time it takes for radionuclides to reach the Pecos River, the shorter travel times do not result in significant increases in the estimated concentrations of radionuclides in the Pecos River nor in the radiation doses associated with the use of such water. Other ways in which parameter changes might affect these concentrations and doses are mentioned in the Conclusions section of the report, but are not the subject of this analysis