Seismic hazard uncertainty and its effects on design decisions

The influence of uncertainty in seimic hazard on decisions for seimic design levels and seismic retrofit strategies is investigated. The issue of uncertainty in seismic hazard is of particular importance in intraplate tectonic environments, because the uncertainty in seismic hazard is typically rather large in these regions as a result of uncertainties in tectonic models, maximum magnitudes, and ground motions during earthquakes. Also, the state-of-the-art in tectonic interpretations and ground motion estimation in intraplate regions is growing rapidly, and will continue to do so. This implies that the uncertainty in seismic hazard will be reduced in the future, and the seismic hazard will also change at many sites, often by significant factors. (orig./HP)