Early increase in circulating carbonic anhydrase IX during neoadjuvant treatment predicts favourable outcome in locally advanced rectal cancer

Locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) comprises heterogeneous tumours with predominant hypoxic components. The hypoxia-inducible metabolic shift causes microenvironmental acidification generated by carbonic anhydrase IX (CAIX) and facilitates metastatic progression, the dominant cause of failure in LARC. Using a commercially available immunoassay, circulating CAIX was assessed in prospectively archived serial serum samples collected during combined-modality neoadjuvant treatment of LARC patients and correlated to histologic tumour response and progression-free survival (PFS). Patients who from their individual baseline level displayed serum CAIX increase above a threshold of 224 pg/ml (with 96 % specificity and 39 % sensitivity) after completion of short-course neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NACT) prior to long-course chemoradiotherapy and definitive surgery had significantly better 5-year PFS (94 %) than patients with below-threshold post-NACT versus baseline alteration (PFS rate of 56 %; p < 0.01). This particular CAIX parameter, ΔNACT, was significantly correlated with histologic ypT0–2 and ypN0 outcome (p < 0.01) and remained an independent PFS predictor in multivariate analysis wherein it was entered as continuous variable (p = 0.04). Our results indicate that low ΔNACT, i.e., a weak increase in serum CAIX level following initial neoadjuvant treatment (in this case two cycles of the Nordic FLOX regimen), might be used as risk-adapted stratification to postoperative therapy or other modes of intensification of the combined-modality protocol in LARC. ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT00278694