Climate change driving forces. Nuclear energy and the latest IPCC emission scenarios

How the world will develop over the next 100 years is riddled with uncertainties. Yet analysts can assess alternative developmental paths and diverse sets of driving forces to gain an image of the future - in fact a number of images, depending on assumptions they use. Over the past decades, the scientific and research community has devoted considerable attention to studying issues of climate change, and to modeling its possible future development, impact and ways to mitigate potential effects. The studies are complex, involving assessments of social, economic, and technological developments in diverse fields. In early 2000, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) approved a Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) for the period through 2100. It contains 40 scenarios, prepared with six computer models, for the world and its main regions, and focuses largely on the main greenhouse gases (GHGs) and sulphur dioxide. The scenarios are designed to provide a basis for assessments of climate change and its impact. The new scenarios are 'non-intervention' ones with regard to climate change - that is, they exclude measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. However, policies with respect to other environmental factors are included; this includes, for example, progress in sulphur abatement technologies in developing countries, which results in lower global sulphur dioxide emissions than in previous IPCC assessments. This article briefly reviews the latest IPCC emission scenarios and looks closely at the projected role of nuclear energy, which can provide a valuable long-term perspective for nuclear development. This perspective is especially useful since the possible 'nuclear futures' were modelled in the scenarios without taking into account considerations specifically related to climate change. Rather, the scenarios focused on technical and economic competition among energy supply options as the key driving force for determining the fuel mix in the energy system