Review of the work by Kondratyev and Nikolsky on the climatic effects of atmospheric nuclear explosions

A recent article by Gribbin that discussed yet unpublished work by K. Ya. Kondratyev and G.A. Nikolsky has generated a great deal of interest (or controversy). The claim is made that the effect of the eruption of Mt. Agung on temperatures in the northern hemisphere has been overestimated by a factor of two and that the cooling effect of large releases of NOx to the stratosphere in the 1960s from nuclear tests was comparable to that of Mt. Agung. Following a chain of arguments, that are discussed below, Gribbin quotes the Soviet scientists as saying, in the case of a nuclear conflict, a global decrease of the Earth's surface temperature may reach 5-10 K, which will bring about disastrous consequences for man's economic activity. In order to evaluate these claims, the author has looked at each step in their argument as discussed in Gribbin's article and in an earlier publication of most of these ideas (Kondratyev and Nikolsky). He has attempted to identify (1) assumptions made in their argument, (2) unsubstantiated statements, and (3) gaps or omissions in their argument that may affect their conclusions. The Kondratyev and Nikolsky article is reviewed first, then the Gribbin article