Biorefining: Opportunities for Europe by 2050 - Focus on biofuels and bioplastics

The goal of achieving net zero emissions by 2050 requires significant efforts from countries, industries, and citizens to reduce, recycle, and replace the use of fossil based products in all sectors of the economy. Europe has been successful in increasing the turnover of the bio-based economy by more than 40% in less than a decade and thanks to dedicated national bioeconomy strategies, and agricultural resources, the European Union has a leading role in biorefining. Although several market segments show dynamic evolution perspectives, our study is focused on two main markets: bioplastics and biofuels. These renewable resources are gaining popularity in the chemical, construction, transport, and packaging industries as they offer alternatives to products derived from petroleum and may help these markets reach carbon neutrality in the frame of the European Green Deal. To predict how the production capacities of biofuels and bioplastics will evolve in the next 30 years, Sia Partner conducted a study and developed three scenarios based on regulatory, technological, and societal breakthroughs, as well as long-term trends. The scenarios range from conservative and supportive to advanced, depending on the deployment of advanced generation technologies (2G+) encouraged by government incentives. The study estimates that the additional European production capacity of biofuels and bioplastics by 2050 could be up to 2000 new biorefinery units, assuming absolute European sovereignty for bio feedstock resources and no importation of finished products. The study also analyzed four key parameters to qualify the benefits of biorefining in the fuels and plastics sectors: environmental impact, energy sovereignty, agriculture stress, and resource impacts. To meet the increasing European demand for biofuels and bioplastics by 2050, the actors in the biorefining and oil industry must transform their business models. Sia Partners proposes three main levers to help overcome the challenges of the biorefining sector by 2050: supportive policies for the expansion of regional bioeconomy strategies and R and D, feedstock supply by setting up flexible logistic systems to exploit the full potential of available biomass in the EU, and a business model based on the bio-economy to develop new capacities and aim for high potential markets