Oil Outlook to 2025. OPEC Secretariat paper

This background paper presents the OPEC Secretariat's latest outlook to 2025 for oil supply and demand. The results have been developed using the OPEC World Energy Model, OWEM. These projections are complemented by an analysis of downstream issues using an OPEC Secretariat refining and transportation linear programming model. The document is organised in three sections. The first part deals with the reference case, representing a 'dynamics-as-usual' scenario, considering the prospects for oil demand growth by sector and region, and the expectations for supply growth. A comparison of forecasts is also included. The second section looks at scenarios based upon this reference case, with emphasis on the uncertainties associated with oil demand growth prospects. Finally, attention turns to the role that clean oil technology can play in the future drive towards cleaner fossil fuels and the long-lasting sustainable use of oil