Fuel-cycle greenhouse gas emissions impacts of alternative transportation fuels and advanced vehicle technologies

At an international conference on global warming, held in Kyoto, Japan, in December 1997, the United States committed to reduce its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 7% over its 1990 level by the year 2012. To help achieve that goal, transportation GHG emissions need to be reduced. Using Argonne's fuel-cycle model, I estimated GHG emissions reduction potentials of various near- and long-term transportation technologies. The estimated per-mile GHG emissions results show that alternative transportation fuels and advanced vehicle technologies can help significantly reduce transportation GHG emissions. Of the near-term technologies evaluated in this study, electric vehicles; hybrid electric vehicles; compression-ignition, direct-injection vehicles; and E85 flexible fuel vehicles can reduce fuel-cycle GHG emissions by more than 25%, on the fuel-cycle basis. Electric vehicles powered by electricity generated primarily from nuclear and renewable sources can reduce GHG emissions by 80%. Other alternative fuels, such as compressed natural gas and liquefied petroleum gas, offer limited, but positive, GHG emission reduction benefits. Among the long-term technologies evaluated in this study, conventional spark ignition and compression ignition engines powered by alternative fuels and gasoline- and diesel-powered advanced vehicles can reduce GHG emissions by 10% to 30%. Ethanol dedicated vehicles, electric vehicles, hybrid electric vehicles, and fuel-cell vehicles can reduce GHG emissions by over 40%. Spark ignition engines and fuel-cell vehicles powered by cellulosic ethanol and solar hydrogen (for fuel-cell vehicles only) can reduce GHG emissions by over 80%. In conclusion, both near- and long-term alternative fuels and advanced transportation technologies can play a role in reducing the United States GHG emissions