Towards an energy end use model

The general equilibrium energy end use model proposed, uses linear programming as te basic and central element to optimization of variables defined in the economic and energy areas of the country related to a four factors structure: Energy, Raw Material, Capital and Labor, and related to the sectors: Residential, Commercial, Industrial, Transportation and Import/Export. Input-Output coefficients are defined in an input-output matrix of processes representing the supply of Electricity (generated by nuclear- not available in Chile-hydro, gas, fuel-oil and coal), Petroleum, Imported Natural Gas (transported and distributed) National Natural Gas, LPG, Coal, Wood and representing a demand of Residential, Commercial, Industrial, Transportation and Import/Export. There is an interaction of the final demand composition, the prices of capital, labor and taxes with the levels of operation for each process and the prices of goods and services. In addition to the prices of fuels for each annual period, to the supply and demand of energy and to the total demand it can forecast the optimum coefficients of the final demand. If the data to be collected result reasonably complete and consistent, the model will be useful for planning. A special effort should be placed in specifying a certain number of typical energy activities, the available options for fuels, the selection of them attending rational market decisions and conservation according to well known economical criteria of substitution. To simulate the process of options selection given by the activities and to allow substitutions, it is possible to introduce the logit function characterized by a Weibull distribution and the generalized substitution function characterized by the constant electricity. The model would allow, assuming differents scenario, to visualize general policies in the penetration of energy technologies. To study the penetration of electric energy generated by nuclear, in which the country does not have data, parametric perturbation could be introduced to foreign data (author)