Challenges and risks in environmental management

Foresight is a keyword in the proposed environmental strategies for the 21 st century. How do we foresee the problems we will face and how do we identify solutions and remedies? One way is to extrapolate trends but not merely or primarily trends in loads and effects but also trends in the pattern of understanding. Focusing on some case studies of classical and new pollutants and with an eye on how scientists have argued priorities when applying for research funds these trends will be discussed. Some conclusions are clear: Globally load trends are generally negative in that mankind uses and releases more and more of most environmentally hazardous chemicals; In OECD countries the pattern of pollution has gone from local intense pollution of a limited number of compounds from few sources to a high number each of the sources contributing marginally to a concentration which for the individual element is below or at the non-effect level. In combination though they have an effect. Developing countries largely do not leapfrog environmental degradation but undergo the same process as the industrialized countries did, this time affecting many more human beings; Criteria for 'environmentally hazardous' have shifted from 'intense effects' to 'long-lasting' and 'impacting a large area'; Many of the 'new' environmental problems like those concerning stratospheric ozone and climate have not yet manifested themselves in a 'visible' way but are results of computer model predictions; 'Future' environmental problems may be found among hormones or hormone mimicking substances; An environmental movement with NGO's and marketing directors of multinational corporations in the forefront may go for simplistic problem definitions and solutions that can be communicated as advertisements