National Fragile Degree of Climate Change Based on Catastrophe Progression Method and Correlation Analysis

Nowadays, more and more attention is focused on climate change and environmental problems which are caused by human factors. In the meantime, climate change is directly or indirectly affecting the development of countries. There are plenty articles, which provide the definition about vulnerability of countries, have analyzed and evaluated the climate influence on different area. Quantitative index, however, are not obtained to reflect the impact of climate change on countries globally. This paper will discover the relationship between climate change and national fragile degree by using catastrophe progression method. Five levels of fragile degree are set to evaluate the national condition. After analyzing climate factors the precipitation, mean temperature and CO2 emissions are the biggest factors which have dominant influence on national fragile degree. Then linear regression is used to establish precipitation-mean temperature-CO2 emissions model (PMC), which shows how these factors affect fragile degree and how to reduce the effect. (paper)