Regional risk assessment of environmental contamination from oil pipelines

This paper presents a methodology for assessing the risk of environmental contamination from oil pipeline leaks due to earthquakes. Risk is measured both as volume of oil released and remediation cost. The methodology was developed for use on a regional scale and thus relies on a limited amount of input data. Monte Carlo techniques are used to simulate earthquake events, while a deterministic model is used to estimate the volume of oil released at a particular site. A library of cost models is used to estimate the contamination and resulting remediation cost based on the volume of oil released and the general site conditions. This methodology has been implemented in a computer program, OILOSS, and the results are presented as annual frequency of exceedence curves for volume of oil released and cost of remediation