Approach and results of the PWR low power and shutdown accident frequencies program - Coarse screening analysis for Surry

Traditionally, probabilistic risk analyses of severe accidents in nuclear power plants have limited themselves to consideration of the set of initiating events occurring during full power operation. However, some analyses of accident initiators during low power, shutdown, and other modes of plant operation other than full power have been performed. These studies as well as the Chernobyl accident and recent operating experience at US pressurized water reactors (PWRs) suggested that risks during low power and shutdown could be significant. As such, the analysis of the frequencies, consequences, and risks of these accidents was identified as one task in the Nuclear Regulatory Commission staff's study of the implications of the Chernobyl accident to US commercial nuclear power plants. This program is an ongoing high priority effort at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL). The scope includes a Level 1 probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) with internal fire and flood for Surry Unit 1 (PWR). This program is also closely coupled to a parallel project for the Grand Gulf plant (BWWR) being conducted by SNL. The program is being performed in two phases. Phase 1 represents a coarse screening analysis to identify dominant accident scenarios as well as risk dominant plant configurations and plant operating states. In Phase 2, a detailed PRA will be performed for the dominant accident scenarios/operating states identified in Phase 1. The objectives, results and insights of Phase 1 are discussed in the paper