Global and regional energy scenarios for the reduction of CO2 emissions and the role of nuclear power

The paper investigates the possibilities for a significant reduction of CO2 emissions by 2030. The target figure for such a reduction is 4 GtC/year while the present energy related CO2 emission is at 6 GtC/year. Such a target can only be met if all possibilities are being made use of, that is: a change of the fossil fuel use, the use of recycled biomass, of non carbon alternative energy sources, of nuclear power and the introduction of significant energy conservation. To that end existing energy scenarios are evaluated and a new scenario is introduced, the 1989 Juelich CO2 reduction scenario for 2030. The Low Scenario of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) of 1975 serves as a reference case. Against that case the energy conservation scenarios of Colombo/Bernardini and of Goldemberg et. al. are compared. It turns out that only extreme measures can alleviate the situation of CO2 emissions. Thus the paper essentially answers the question: ''how impossible is impossible?'' The difficulties become apparent when not only global figures but sub scenarios in seven different comprehensive world regions are being considered. It turns out that nuclear energy contributes in the 1989 Juelich scenario not only for electricity generation but also for high temperature nuclear process heat used for the reformation of natural gas. A total of 2 TWe of electricity generation capacity (partly meant as the equivalent of high temperature nuclear process heat) appears as necessary in the 1989 Juelich scenario. It nicely compares with the OECD/IAEA high estimate for 2025 which was 2.16 TWe. (author). 18 refs, 1 fig., 9 tabs