Fuelling expectations: A policy-promise lock-in of UK biofuel policy

Controversy over EU-wide biofuel policy resonated within the UK, fuelling policy disagreements among UK public authorities. They disagreed over how to protect a space for future second-generation biofuels, which were expected to overcome harm from first-generation biofuels. The UK government defended rising targets for available biofuels as a necessary stimulus for industry to help fulfil the UK's EU obligations and eventually develop second-generation biofuels. By contrast, Parliamentary Select Committees opposed biofuel targets on grounds that these would instead lock-in first-generation biofuels, thus delaying or pre-empting second-generation biofuels. Those disagreements can be explained by different institutional responsibilities and reputational stakes towards 'promise-requirement cycles', whereby techno-optimistic promises generate future requirements for the actors involved. The UK government's stance illustrates a 'policy-promise lock-in', a dilemma whereby promised support is a requirement for credibility towards technology innovators and thus technoscientific development – but may delay the redirection of support from incumbent to preferable emerging technologies. Thus the sociology of expectations – previously applied to technological expectations from technology innovators – can be extended to analyse public authorities. - Highlights: • Controversy over EU-wide biofuel policy resonated within the UK. • At issue was how to stimulate future 2nd-generation biofuels. • The government defended targets for 1st-generation as necessary to stimulate industry. • Parliamentary Committees opposed biofuel targets as locking in 1st-generation. • The UK government′s stance illustrates a 'policy-promise lock-in'